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Re: Ratings Questions
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dkirchg
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Minor Leaguer (Rookie Ball)
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: 2
02/02/10 09:51 AM
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First I want to say that I am very disappointed in the run ratings of players like Andrus and Ellsbury. (Poor and Average) I think part of the problem is the run rating encompasses too much. Speed and base running smarts are two different categories. DMB treats them as one.
The runner's chances to take an extra base depend on the batted ball (distance, direction, and how hard it was hit), the speed of the runner, and the throwing rating of the outfielder. It's easier to take an extra base on a single when it's a soft line drive in the gap than when it's a hard line drive directly toward a fielder. It's easier to go from second to third when the ball is hit to right field than when it is hit to left. It's easier to advance on deep fly balls than shallow ones.
The running rating measures the player's ability to take extra bases on singles, doubles, and caught fly balls. It measures both running speed and the player's judgment about when to take the extra base. Some slow runners have good ratings because they know when to try for the extra base. Some fast runners have low ratings because they don't read the ball off the bat very well or because they're too aggressive and get thrown out frequently.
Baseball Prospectus has a base running stat category
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).
This category rated 846 players. Andrus was ranked 15th on the list. Nine of the fifteen had Excellent DMB run ratings. One had a Very Good rating and four had Average run ratings. Then you have Andrus who is ranked Poor by DMB. The 16th player Rasmus, also had an Excellent run rating. At the other end of the list mostly all the players had poor ratings. Ellsbury was ranked 7th on this list by the way.
DMB seems to leave enough windows open to justify any rating they give to a player. The poor rating Andrus received just doesn’t make sense.
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