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Meaning of projection disk
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Re: Meaning of projection disk
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DSzymborski
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03/13/10 05:11 PM
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Fangraphs actually had them since last May! Every player had their ZiPS RoS projection and a RoS Total representing the season-to-date stats and the projected rest of season added together.
Dave Cameron talked a bit about them here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/...small-sample-usefulness/
In the example he gave, Victor Martinez was projected for the 2009 season to hit 293/366/447. Through April 28, he hit a torrid 388/438/624. Using what I refer to as Ghetto-Bayes Theorem (doing it in the simplest way possible in Excel for dynamic automatic website updating), it bumped his rest-of-year projection to 305/380/467 (it ended up being 288/372/455 rest of the way).
Should be up from Day 1 for 2010 - my deal with ESPN does not involve things like this going behind their pay wall (aside from any specific analysis I publish for them that utilizes the tools).
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Meaning of projection disk
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