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Posts: 274
03/22/08 09:55 PM
jfish26101 wrote: You are making assumptions
Oh, and you're not? Even with a normal distribution, in 20 at-bats, you're talking 5-6 hits (2-3 of which are for extra bases) and 14-15 outs, some number of which will be double plays, and 4-5 of which will end innings. I still see the 20 guaranteed inning-extending non-outs as more valuable than that. Now, granted if the Reds have a total scrub (say, Juan Castro) batting behind Dunn/Votto, then Dunn/Votto should perhaps be more aggressive, but if instead it's someone like Edwin Encarnacion, the chances of him driving in the run are only slightly less than Dunn/Votto's, with the added bonus of having an extra guy on base with the potential to drive in even MORE runs.
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