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Posts: 149
03/03/08 04:29 PM
Posts: 857
03/03/08 05:18 PM
jfish26101 wrote: I thought about using the ZiPS DMB projections but almost everyone who has posted a reply so far has been against it. The most valid point was that there are no splits, just one projection across the board.
Posts: 51
03/03/08 05:23 PM
TedRoethke wrote: jfish26101 wrote: I thought about using the ZiPS DMB projections but almost everyone who has posted a reply so far has been against it. The most valid point was that there are no splits, just one projection across the board. Would you or your fellow players know if ZiPS at least uses a standard (as opposed to actual) left/right differential for players, or if the split is exactly the same left and right?
Though I'm not 100% positive, I think it's exactly the same vs. left and right. Reason I say this is because I was playing a few games w/ the ZiPS and you'd see "Avg. vs all: .253" for pitchers, with the splits being blank. I still could be wrong though. It's the major downfall of ZiPS. It would be nice if PECOTA were put into DMB format since it looks like as others have stated the new ownership of DMB doesn't really care about this product anymore.
Posts: 189
03/03/08 05:24 PM
03/03/08 05:31 PM
CardinalsX wrote: TedRoethke wrote: jfish26101 wrote: I thought about using the ZiPS DMB projections but almost everyone who has posted a reply so far has been against it. The most valid point was that there are no splits, just one projection across the board. Would you or your fellow players know if ZiPS at least uses a standard (as opposed to actual) left/right differential for players, or if the split is exactly the same left and right? Though I'm not 100% positive, I think it's exactly the same vs. left and right. Reason I say this is because I was playing a few games w/ the ZiPS and you'd see "Avg. vs all: .253" for pitchers, with the splits being blank. I still could be wrong though. It's the major downfall of ZiPS. It would be nice if PECOTA were put into DMB format since it looks like as others have stated the new ownership of DMB doesn't really care about this product anymore.
Posts: 297
03/03/08 05:36 PM
Ted, not really sure how to answer your question really. What Cards said is accurate, it appears to be just one number with the splits all set to zero. I've ran several sims and the numbers are just off the wall. Huge differences from year to year but you get that in DMB sometimes to. I suppose if someone used the program that allows you to sim large amounts of seasons and compare, you might get an idea but outside of that I'm just not sure how to answer it.
Posts: 1861
TedRoethke wrote: Would you or your fellow players know if ZiPS at least uses a standard (as opposed to actual) left/right differential for players, or if the split is exactly the same left and right?
If the player records on the ZiPS Projection disk were created using the "Overall" method, which I think we can assume, then DMB would "use historical norms to rate batters to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers. The difference is about 20 batting average points and 30-40 points in slugging average. In other words, a lefty hitter who batted .280 overall would be rated to hit about .287 against righties and .267 against lefties. If that player faces righties about 2/3 of the time, his overall average in his DMB games would be around .280. Similar adjustments are made for right-handed batters and for pitchers."
David
03/03/08 05:39 PM
diesel wrote: TedRoethke wrote: Would you or your fellow players know if ZiPS at least uses a standard (as opposed to actual) left/right differential for players, or if the split is exactly the same left and right? If the player records on the ZiPS Projection disk were created using the "Overall" method, which I think we can assume, but I'm not sure, then DMB would "use historical norms to rate batters to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers. The difference is about 20 batting average points and 30-40 points in slugging average. In other words, a lefty hitter who batted .280 overall would be rated to hit about .287 against righties and .267 against lefties. If that player faces righties about 2/3 of the time, his overall average in his DMB games would be around .280. Similar adjustments are made for right-handed batters and for pitchers." David
If the player records on the ZiPS Projection disk were created using the "Overall" method, which I think we can assume, but I'm not sure, then DMB would "use historical norms to rate batters to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers. The difference is about 20 batting average points and 30-40 points in slugging average. In other words, a lefty hitter who batted .280 overall would be rated to hit about .287 against righties and .267 against lefties. If that player faces righties about 2/3 of the time, his overall average in his DMB games would be around .280. Similar adjustments are made for right-handed batters and for pitchers."
03/03/08 05:59 PM
jfish26101 wrote: Ted, not really sure how to answer your question really. What Cards said is accurate, it appears to be just one number with the splits all set to zero. I've ran several sims and the numbers are just off the wall. Huge differences from year to year but you get that in DMB sometimes to. I suppose if someone used the program that allows you to sim large amounts of seasons and compare, you might get an idea but outside of that I'm just not sure how to answer it.
Posts: 9161
03/03/08 06:01 PM
Posts: 49
03/03/08 07:23 PM
03/03/08 07:36 PM
SGinATL wrote: If you look at the player cards for players created using the Overall method like Dan S uses for ZiPS, you'll see that there are differences in their power rating for many of them based on their handedness. Based on research I've read, it's often preferable to use historical splits to a player's actual platoon splits until you get up to an adequate sample size. I can run some ZiPS simulations now and look at how the splits turn out over 100 seasons or so and post the results some time this week if anyone is interested.
SG, I would certainly be interested in seeing your results with this. Thanks. TR edit: A little while ago I put up a post on the BTF forum asking for further clarification on the splits issue. Have not heard anything yet.
03/04/08 08:07 AM
03/04/08 09:07 AM
03/04/08 09:30 AM
SGinATL wrote: TedRoethke (and anyone else who's curious), you can download the splits for 100 iterations with the ZiPS projection disk here: http://www.replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/ZiPSsplits100iterations.zip
Thanks, SG. Just eyeballing it quickly this morning before work, I'm seeing splits there.
Posts: 75
03/05/08 01:53 PM
03/05/08 08:00 PM
Posts: 102
03/06/08 12:38 AM
03/06/08 05:37 PM
DSzymborski wrote: I've always taken it for granted that any split created with overall would have the event table apply generic historical splits as that's always been my experience - I've played a ridiculous amount of DMB. If I thought that "Overall" generated an event table was the same for lefties as righties, I'd definitely make more of an effort to project splits. The only thing I've done differently this year (though not for the first release) is regenerate tables for starting switch-hitters with strong platoon splits (like Orlando Hudson) by changing them to the side of the plate they're in tune with, regenerating the event table, and then putting them back to switch.
Thanks for weighing in on this Dan, and thanks for your work on your disk.
Anachron wrote: Results from 100 iterations SGinATL, thanks so much for the 100 ZiPS replays! Lot of interesting numbers in there. Looking at the replay results, for players that averaged at least 400 AB per replay, right-handed batters hit .292 vs LHP and .272 vs RHP. Left-handed batters hit .270 vs LHP and .296 vs RHP. Sure looks like historical generic splits. Ken
Results from 100 iterations SGinATL, thanks so much for the 100 ZiPS replays! Lot of interesting numbers in there. Looking at the replay results, for players that averaged at least 400 AB per replay, right-handed batters hit .292 vs LHP and .272 vs RHP. Left-handed batters hit .270 vs LHP and .296 vs RHP. Sure looks like historical generic splits. Ken
Thanks SG and Ken for running the replays and looking at the numbers.
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